Business sentiment among Azerbaijan’s industrial companies weakened in September, according to the Central Bank of Azerbaijan’s real sector monitoring survey. The confidence index dropped 4.2 points to 13, ending three straight months of gains, with production expectations seeing the sharpest decline.
The Central Bank of Azerbaijan (CBA) has released the latest results of its real sector monitoring survey, showing the industrial confidence index fell from 17.2 points in August to 13 points in September — a drop of 4.2 points. Compared with September 2025, when the index stood at 20.1 points, the gap is 7.1 points.
The decline breaks a three-month upward trend. The index had climbed from 14 points in June to 15.7 in July, then rose further to 17.2 points in August.
Production expectations see the steepest drop
The survey’s most notable deterioration came in expectations for output over the next three months. That indicator fell from 21.1 points in August to 18.1 points in September. The annual comparison is starker still: the figure is down 23.4 points from the 41.5 points recorded in September 2025.
A separate indicator tracking actual production over the past three months also weakened, slipping from 26.3 points in August to 19.1 points in September. Even so, this reading remains above the 16 points recorded a year earlier, in September 2025.
New orders remain in negative territory
The indicator measuring new orders received by companies showed a modest improvement, rising from -28.9 points in August to -26.5 points in September. It nevertheless remains in negative territory and is weaker than the -24.8 points recorded in September 2025, pointing to continued softness in demand for orders.
Price expectations also eased. The index measuring anticipated price changes over the next three months fell from 3.8 points in August to 2 points in September, well below the 13.5 points recorded a year earlier.
