Azerbaijan pumped 430,000 barrels of oil per day in October 2026, falling short of its 550,000-barrel OPEC+ quota, according to the International Energy Agency’s latest monthly oil market report.
Azerbaijan’s oil production slipped to 430,000 barrels per day in October, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said in its November oil market report. The figure was down 10,000 barrels from September, when daily output stood at 440,000 barrels.
As a result, Azerbaijan’s actual oil production came in 120,000 barrels per day below the 550,000-barrel daily target set under the OPEC+ agreement. The IEA estimated the country’s sustainable production capacity at 440,000 barrels per day, with spare capacity of just 10,000 barrels.
Global oil supply rises
The report found that global oil supply climbed by 2.3 million barrels per day in October from the previous month, reaching 105.4 million barrels per day. Total global output has risen by 5.3 million barrels per day since August.
The IEA forecasts that world oil supply will fall by an average of 4.8 million barrels per day in 2026, before rising by 6.6 million barrels per day in 2027 to reach 108.1 million barrels per day. On the demand side, the agency expects global consumption to drop by 2.7 million barrels per day in 2026 to 102.3 million barrels per day, followed by a 2 million barrel per day increase in 2027.
The report noted that rising fuel prices, accelerating electrification of transport and more fuel-efficient vehicles will slow any recovery in demand, particularly for transport fuels.
The IEA assesses that global oil supply will start to outpace demand from the fourth quarter of 2026, with the gap widening further in 2027. The agency added that ongoing attacks on energy infrastructure and tankers continue to pose a risk to the stability of oil supplies.
