The Jamestown Foundation, a US think tank, writes that Indian External Affairs Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar’s October 23 trip to Baku, the first such visit in eight years, points to a thaw in bilateral relations that had cooled since May 2025.
According to an analysis published by the Jamestown Foundation, Jaishankar was received in Baku by President Ilham Aliyev and also met Foreign Minister Jeyhun Bayramov. Its author, Vasif Huseynov, notes it was the Indian foreign minister’s first bilateral visit to Azerbaijan since April 2018. Jaishankar described the trip as a follow-up to a meeting between Aliyev and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi on the sidelines of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation summit in Bishkek on September 1.
The think tank writes that the chill in ties followed India’s military strikes against Pakistan in May 2025, after which Baku expressed support for the Pakistani people. Jamestown notes that major Indian travel platforms subsequently removed Azerbaijan listings or advised against non-essential travel there, and the number of Indian tourists visiting the country fell 56% between May and August 2025 compared with the same period a year earlier. Baku also accused New Delhi of blocking its bid for full membership in the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation, while India said the applications were not discussed at the 2025 summit due to time constraints.
The foundation says the first signs of a rapprochement emerged in April during the sixth round of foreign ministry consultations held in Baku, with the Aliyev-Modi meeting in September giving the process political momentum. At a joint press conference, Bayramov stressed that the two sides had openly discussed their earlier disagreements, while Jaishankar called the talks “very productive” and said both were “independent-minded nations who make their own call.”
Trade turnover and transport links
According to the Jamestown Foundation, bilateral trade turnover reached roughly $600 million in the January-September period this year, already surpassing the $401 million recorded for the whole of 2025, though still well below the 2022 record of $1.88 billion. In that period Azerbaijan exported 524,338 tons of crude oil to India. India’s state-owned oil company ONGC Videsh holds a 2.925% stake in the Azeri-Chirag-Guneshli fields and a 3.097% share in the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline, with total investment exceeding $1.2 billion.
The foundation notes the two sides agreed to coordinate more closely on the International North-South Transport Corridor, while Bayramov said around 500 Indian students had been enrolled at Azerbaijani universities this year. Jamestown stresses that the rapprochement remains fragile, with India’s arms sales to Armenia and Azerbaijan’s bid for full Shanghai Cooperation Organisation membership still sensitive issues between the two countries.
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